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The Founder’s North Star

Users as the only durable signal

June 8, 2025

SignalStartupsUsers

I thought I was writing two different essays.

One about how founders stand out in selective accelerator interviews.

The other about why the idea that billionaires are made by exploiting people doesn’t hold.

They turned out to be the same thing.


What actually predicts anything

After enough time around early-stage companies, patterns stop being theoretical.

If exploitation were the signal, you’d see it early. You’d learn to recognize it the way a scout recognizes reflexes or control.

It doesn’t show up that way.

What does is much simpler.

Founders who understand a group of people unusually well, and can build something those people want.

Startups don’t get the luxury of indifference. They don’t survive on distribution or inertia.

They survive because someone chooses to use what they’ve built, even when it’s rough, and then tells someone else.


The question that matters

In an investor conversation, everything eventually compresses into one question.

How do you know people want this?

The strongest answers aren’t analytical.

They’re close.

We want it. We built it. People we know are already using it.

Not polished. Not scaled. But real.

That kind of answer carries weight because it’s lived, not inferred.


What those conversations actually are

They’re not performances.

The best ones move quickly. Questions, answers, adjustments.

The investor is trying to understand two things.

Is there something here that could matter at scale.

And are these the people who will find their way there.

That second part shows up in how you respond when you don’t know something.

Say you don’t know and explain how you’ll find out, and you gain ground.

Pretend certainty, and you lose it.


What breaks most companies

It’s rarely competition.

More often it’s drift.

Losing connection with users. Slipping in execution. Friction between founders that never resolves.

The companies that make it tend to share something else.

The founders would keep working on the problem even if the outcome changed.

Not because they have to. Because they’re not done.


Where the myth comes from

The exploitation narrative starts from something real.

It doesn’t feel right to see extreme wealth next to real need.

That feeling gets extended into a conclusion that doesn’t quite match reality.

There are people who make money doing harm.

There are many who don’t.

At scale, the more reliable path looks almost unfashionably simple.

Find a group of people.
Understand them deeply.
Make something they want.
Keep improving it.


What holds

Every company drifts eventually.

Priorities shift. Pressure builds. Shortcuts start to look reasonable.

There’s only one reference point that consistently pulls things back into alignment.

Understand your users.

Lose that, and someone else will take it from you.

Keep it, and everything else becomes solvable.

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